The Estudos Avançados Journal

IEA's journal seeks to fulfill one of the objectives of the institute: to combine academic research and interest in the improvement of the public policies. The areas of scientific knowledge included in the issues (114 so far) are directly articulated with essential themes of the Brazilian and world societies, as poverty, malnutrition and public health system. Some highlights of the latest release are listed below.

Estudos Avançados #114

In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for 81.9% of all energy consumed worldwide. To combat global warming, it is necessary to reduce the consumption of these fuels and find substitutes for them. However, this energy transition requires solutions to two problems, according to physicist José Goldemberg: the depletion of oil reserves exploitable with current technologies and costs by 2050 (other reserves should extend this timeframe, but at higher costs), and the reduction of carbon (CO2) emissions resulting from the burning of fossil fuels through the use of more efficient technologies.

Climate Negotiations

Goldemberg states that emissions increased globally by 33% between 1992 and 2022, with a 78% increase from developing countries (including China), which in 1991 were already responsible for more than 50% of the emissions. "Therefore, it is clear that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), established at the 1992 Earth Summit, and the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, did not achieve the expected success," says the physicist.

He traces the climate negotiations back to a decision made at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen for developed countries to allocate US$ 100 billion annually until 2020 to meet the needs of developing countries. "Bitter discussions on this topic took place over the years and it was decided that COP29 (Baku, 2024) would be dedicated to finance and review the 2009 decision under the Paris Agreement of 2015."

The physicist highlights that at the closing session of COP29, faced with the imminent risk of failure, the president of the Conference presented a final decision "without consulting the plenary": to adopt the anual target of at least US$ 300 billion in climate finance from various public and private, bilateral, and multilateral sources, including alternative ones, until 2035. Goldemberg explains that this happened despite the fact that UNFCCC's Standing Committee on Finance estimates that US$ 5 to US$ 7 trillion (approximately US$ 455-485 billion per year) will be needed from 2022 to 2030.

He remembers that several countries questioned the COP29 decision and lamented the lack of a minimum allocation of resources for least developed countries, as well as the absence of guidelines for advancing the energy transition, in addition to arguing that China and Saudi Arabia should also contribute to climate finance.

"What we hope is that COP30, under the Brazilian presidency, will improve this situation." However, Goldemberg considers it unlikely that the anual US$ 300 billion allocated for climate finance until 2035 will increase, since "Trump's election will reduce the United States' participation in the process." Additionally, there is the impact of global inflation on the amount. "What can be improved is trying to increase the share of concessional resources that will come from public resources," he ponders, citing examples such as the Marshall Plan, created in 1948 by the USA for the European reconstruction, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), adopted in 2022, which "can actually be considered a Marshall Plan to help North American industry face the energy transition."

Nonetheless, he states that climate finance from industrialized countries to developing countries is only part of the effort to reduce emissions: "Internal actions taken by governments can play an important role depending on the right public policy choices." Among these actions, Goldemberg mentions taxes on carbon emissions or the regulation of the emissions market by setting a maximum emission level per sector (or enterprise) and the creation of a market for buying and selling carbon credits like the one created by Brazil in 2024.

A more ambitious strategy for developing countries is trying to guide their growth using more efficient technologies and renewable energy sources, the physicist adds.

In the Brazilian case, he comments that the federal government is, "at least rhetorically", taking this path through the New Growth Acceleration Program (Novo Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento/PAC), which should invest a total amount of R$ 1.7 trillion: R$ 1.3 trillion by the end of 2025 and R$ 400 billion after 2026. "Due to the economic vicissitudes the country is going through and the low investment, the implementation of the Novo PAC is occurring slowly, but still paving the way through indispensable legislative measures to attract 'green' investments."

Goldemberg concludes by saying that holding COP30 in Belém will place a greater emphasis on preserving the Amazon rainforest, even considering that Brazil's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is modest (4.43% in 2022). "The success in reducing deforestation in the Amazon and the adoption of a law creating a carbon market in Brazil, which has only occurred in a few developing countries to date, will enable us to lead the way," he says.

Sustainable Society

Physicist Paulo Artaxo, coordinator of USP's Center for Studies on Sustainability of the Amazon Rainforest, also believes that COP30 will be an opportunity for Brazil to regain global leadership on issues related to climate change. He is the author of the article "COP30 and the Worsening Climate Crisis – Pathways to Build a Sustainable Society."

Some of the strategies he cited for adapting to climate change are: improving water resource management; protecting and restoring ecosystems by conserving natural areas; developing sustainable agricultural systems by developing plant varieties more resistant to extreme weather conditions such as droughts and floods; strengthening the health system to address heat-related and vector-borne diseases; disaster resilience planning with contingency plans that include community empowerment and the improvement of infrastructure to protect populations; and implementing educational programs on climate change and sustainability to increase public awareness and engagement.

However, Artaxo warns that the international landscape in which the Conference is taking place is unfavorable to the intensification of global governance. "We need to chart a course for the world to wean itself off fossil fuels, which are the root of the climate problems we face. We also need to structure policies for adapting to the new climate, particularly in the most vulnerable countries. In this task, implementing financing mechanisms is crucial so that less developed countries can implement their energy transition and adapt to the new climate."

According to him, although Brazil accounted for 4.5% of global emissions in 2023, it is not yet among the countries that price greenhouse gas emissions. "This creates difficulties in implementing regulatory policies for the so-called carbon market."

Artaxo emphasizes that the externalities of carbon emissions are not taken into account, adding that zeroing out net emissions (the difference between gross emissions and removals) can boost economies due to the investments needed to enable reductions and damage control. "Obviously, this transition to a low-carbon society must be carried out gradually and in a coordinated manner, also considering the reduction of social inequalities."

He lists a series of measures aimed at reducing Brazilian emissions: reducing deforestation and restoring forest areas; increasing the use of renewable energy; promoting sustainable agriculture with the implementation of agroecological practices; and investing in quality public transportation and urban mobility with low greenhouse gas emissions, having an added benefit of reducing urban air pollution, which affects the health of millions of Brazilians.

Risks for the Amazon

"Amazon at Risk and COP30 as a Critical Opportunity to Avoid the Point of No Return" is an article authored by climatologist Carlos Nobre, a visiting professor at the IEA and holder of the Climate & Sustainability Chair (a partnership between the Institute and USP's President's Office), and researchers Julia Arieira and Diego Oliveira Brandão, both members of the Scientific-Technical Secretariat of the Science Panel for the Amazon. For them, the Conference represents a key opportunity to discuss and develop solutions for "preserving the ecological limits that sustain the integrity of the Amazon rainforest and the well-being of its people."

For this to happen, the authors consider it essential that dialogue between governments, civil society, local communities, the private sector, and academia be anchored in both science and local knowledge. Thus, "COP30 will be decisive in building pathways that reconcile sustainable development and a climate justice that recognizes that the impacts of climate change affect different social groups unequally, both in intensity and vulnerability."

The article analyzes the main threats pushing the Amazon towards its critical thresholds, the tipping points, and discusses governance and nature-based strategies that can halt its destruction and boost its regeneration and sustainable use.

Currently, 23% of the Brazilian Amazon is deforested, an area equivalent to 1 million km2, according to the study. Although there has been a reduction in deforestation in recent years, forest fires intensified by the historic drought of 2023-2024 have generated an alarming increase in greenhouse gas emissions, as pointed out by the authors.

The Amazon is also suffering from global warming. Some regions have already exceeded the 1.5°C increase limit (compared to the second half of the 19th century) established by the Paris Agreement: "In 2023, record temperature values were recorded in Manaus and Monte Alegre with annual averages of 28.8°C and 27.9°C, respectively, which were surpassed in 2024. Compared to the average for 1990-2010, these values represented an increase of 1.7°C in Manaus and 0.9°C in Monte Alegre in 2023, and an increase of 1.8°C in both Manaus and Monte Alegre in 2024."

Extreme droughts in the region have become more frequent. Previously, they occurred once every 20 years, but this century the recurrence interval was shortened to 5 years. An extreme drought event is a natural phenomenon associated with rising ocean surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic and the Equatorial Pacific, but it has intensified and become more frequent due to human-induced global warming, the researchers comment. The consequence is a drastic reduction in the water levels of many important rivers in the region. The study explains that global warming above 2°C could further intensify the warming of surface waters in both oceans and, consequently, increase the occurrence of droughts in the Amazon.

A synergistic combination of deforestation between 20% and 25%, and global warming of 2°C to 2.5°C could push more than half of the region into a state of irreversible degradation, according to the authors. The interaction between deforestation, forest degradation, fires, and global warming is associated with five potential tipping points: 1) a 2°C increase in average global temperature compared to pre-industrial levels; 2) local annual precipitation below 1,000 mm; 3) accumulated water deficit greater than -400 mm; 4) a dry season lasting more than six months; and 5) a cumulative forest cover loss of 20%. "Some telling evidence of these processes include prolonged dry season, increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, and increased tree mortality rates."

The article warns that exceeding the point of no return will jeopardize greenhouse gas emissions control, alter rainfall patterns, and reduce agricultural and forestry productivity (both within and outside the Amazon). Other consequences will include the worsening of social inequalities, and losses in biological and cultural diversity, fueling a cycle of environmental degradation and social injustice.

Given these risks, the researchers emphasize that large-scale forest restoration, the implementation of sustainable infrastructure, regenerative livestock and agriculture practices, and bioindustrialization are essential nature-based solutions to keep the Amazon from environmental and social collapse in addition to curbing destruction. They add that the inclusion of Indigenous peoples and other communities of the region in the discussions is crucial to promoting social justice, sharing benefits, and reducing inequalities.

Other articles

The dossier includes five additional articles analyzing the consequences of climate change for Brazil in various areas and presenting proposals for minimizing and/or adapting to them. Some of the authors are pathologist Paulo Saldiva, a full professor at USP's School of Medicine and former director of the IEA; soil specialist Carlos Eduardo Pellegrino Cerri, a professor at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture (ESALQ/USP) and a researcher at the Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON/USP); and economic and social development specialist Marcel Burztyn, a full professor at the Center for Sustainable Development at the University of Brasília (UnB).

"Municipal Health Systems and Climate Change: Infrastructure and Resilience Challenges in Brazil," which addresses the harmful effects of climate change on human health, proposes a conceptual, operational, and budgetary transformation for building resilient systems in the country, emphasizing the integration between levels of care, the strengthening of regional governance, and the valuing of community social capital.

Crop and livestock farming is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, but it is also one of the most vulnerable activities to climate change. A paper dedicated to the sector's role in addressing climate change presents information on some agricultural management practices considered options for adaption and mitigation of effects.

Socio-environmental protection is also addressed in the dossier. Researchers from UnB have analyzed the evolution of social protection instruments and present a proposal for integrating public policies to combat poverty and sustainable development. In this proposal, the abundant sunlight in Brazil's semiarid region becomes a solution intstead of a problem due to its use in clean energy generation, resulting in an income for vulnerable communities.

Legal aspects related to greenhouse gases are the subject of two further articles. One of them addresses the monitoring of the integrity and safety of CO2 storage facilities, while the other is a comparative study of the legislative landscape for this area in Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, and the European Union. A third paper focuses on the creation of a regulated carbon market in Brazil. After analyzing international and national experiences, and legislative initiatives such as bills and the establishment of the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System by Law 15.042/24, the authors conclude that fundamental issues remain to be resolved, including those related to the agricultural sector.

The dossier ends with a review of "The Empire of Climate: A History of an Idea," a book by David Livingstone published in 2024 by Princeton University Press. Nilson Cortez Crocia de Barros, a tenured professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), comments that given the evidence of the severe effects of climate change, "Livingstone recovers the broad spectrum of considerations regarding the influence of climate on the human species. This spectrum is mapped along four paths: the medical path, the path of soul-searching, the economic path, and, finally, the military path."

Related themes

In addition to the opening dossier, issue #114 contains a second set of texts entitled "Society and the Environment." Although it covers a variety of topics, the section is equally connected to those to be discussed at COP30, according to the journal's editor, Sérgio Adorno. The themes range from natural resources (forests, water, and natural gas) to land issues. The proposal for citizen science and the concept of urban commons are also addressed.

The third section of the issue is dedicated to arts and culture. The operetta "Abel, Helena," by Artur Azevedo, the religious influence on artistic production, and the promotion of culture and the arts in Brazil are some of the covered subjects. There is also an interview with filmmaker Cacá Diegues, who died last February at the age of 84. Conducted in 2021 by Noel dos Santos Carvalho, a professor of Brazilian Cinema at the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), it focuses on public policy, the film market, and attempts to institutionalize film production in the country.