Bernardo Sorj
Project'The Middle East Conflict: 1. Introduction The unipolar world, which seemed to be asserting itself in the 1990s with the end of the Soviet Union and the establishment of an international order under the hegemony of the United States, actually entailed a period of complex transition. In the current stage, the United States has seen an abatement of its clout in the world economy and a decline of its ability to impose a global political order in its own likeness and for its own interests, notwithstanding the country’s unmatched military capability. Among the so-called “emerging powers,” a new outlook has prevailed that emphasizes the need to regulate conflicts through international institutions, even as these countries simultaneously seek to maximize their own national interests – for instance, Brazil and its expectation to hold a seat in the UN Security Council. We are thus entering a period of negotiated hegemony. However, this is unlikely to produce stable criteria to regulate the international order, because it leads to greater national autonomy and to more demands from countries anxious to increase their power outreach, at the regional level undoubtedly, and also in international forums. Brazil’s current international prominence is based on a specific combination of subjective and objective elements. The end of the Cold War meant the dissolution of standards that, for half a century, defined the main political players’ perception of the international system. Along with the waning of the ideological shackles and of the strategic dependence on the United States (which had derived from the struggle against Communism), and particularly due to the influence of China, there has been a marked diversification of foreign trade over the last decade. As a result of these processes, the level of autonomy of many countries increased, and they began to develop foreign policies of diverse designs. In Brazil, grounded on the objective reality of economic growth in the first decade of the century and on the country’s conspicuous presence in the international media, the government of president Lula sought to build a new narrative of its own rise to the league of global players. Brazilian foreign policy, which traditionally focused on the defense and promotion of business interests, now includes regional – and global – political issues. The genealogy of this new stance comprises several factors. Regionally, the inclusion of the “Democratic Clause” in the Mercosur Treaty both advanced and legitimized the recantation of the traditional position of neutrality regarding the internal political affairs of neighboring countries. Lula certainly drove through this particular red light when he supported presidential candidates in various Latin American countries or passed judgment on their internal political dynamics. While foreign trade has affected Brazilian foreign policy in other moments in history, the diversification of business interests and the wave of investments in other countries (in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa – often with the direct participation or intermediation of both governments involved) commingled economic and political interests, promoted economic interests and led to the implicit or explicit support of regimes that violated human rights, many of which were recently overturned as a result of popular revolt. Goal of the research Given the new international context, as well as the activism of president Lula, Brazil’s foreign policy experimented, and tested the limits of, a new posture characterized by the effort to make its presence felt in conflicts far from the country’s area of direct influence, Latin America. While the precise role of Brazil’s leadership (and how it was and is exercised in the region) is debatable, there remain no doubt that, in Latin America, the country has been called to play a pivotal role, both economically and politically. In other works, we analyze the difficulties Brazil faces in designing a regional strategy, [1] but surely, given its economic clout and extensive borders, the country cannot afford not to have an active and decisive role in the various problems facing the region. With regard to more distant conflicts, the question that arises is whether the country has enough of what former Foreign Minister Celso Lafer termed “surplus of power” to exert significant influence. The objective of this research is to analyze the experience, during the government of president Lula, of intervening in the conflict in the Middle East, particularly the failed attempt to promote, together with Turkey, an agreement between Iran and the so-called P5 +1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) on the Iranian nuclear program. In the eyes of national and international public opinion, the initiative was a colossal failure of the president’s and the Foreign Ministry’s diplomacy. How can we understand what happened? Did the initiative arise from insufficient diplomatic experience in an area where Brazil is taking its first tentative steps? Or was it the culmination of an approach that included relinquishing human rights in international forums and a rapprochement with political regimes far from the country’s traditional cultural milieu? What was the role of the president’s international relations advisors, who were influenced by ideological affinities with the Workers’ Party? Was Brazil deceived by signs from the U.S. diplomacy? What lessons can be learned from the affair? [1] See SORJ, Bernardo; FAUSTO, Sergio (org.) América Latina: transformaciones geopolíticas y democracia. Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI, 2010. SORJ, Bernardo; Fausto, Sergio (org.) Brasil y América del Sur: miradas cruzadas. Buenos Aires: Catálogos S.L.R, 2011. Research development The research of decision-making processes depends essentially on documents and interviews with the players that took part in the event. In this particular case, the interviews play a central role, since the event is quite recent and the existing documentation is rather limited. We intend to interview individuals who participated directly in the negotiations, both from the Brazilian Foreign Ministry and from the group of advisors to president Lula – and, if possible, the former president himself. We will also contact officers from the US State Department. 2. Academic rationale My sojourn at the Institute of Advanced Studies will give me the opportunity to participate in its activities and to strengthen my contacts with a unique group of scholars, both at the IEA and at the University of São Paulo in general, in areas related to my research project and my overall fields of intellectual interest. I’m sure that I can contribute to the activities of the IEA and that the contacts I will develop during my stay will continue to be fruitful in the future. I also hope to contribute to the organization of events related to my research project and to the broader issue of the political situation in the Middle East. I intend to mobilize my international academic contacts to organize events pertaining to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. It is a topic on which I have been working for decades. I currently cooperate with the Brazilian Foreign Ministry to identify areas where Brazil may make a contribution to peace. Given its high academic standards, the IEA is a particularly suitable place to host a qualified, pluralistic dialogue on this acutely sensitive issue. 3. Work plan During my stay at the IEA, initially for one year starting August 2013, I intend to: 1) Participate in the activities of the Institute; 2) Write an article on my research project; 3) Contribute to organize events related to my areas of research, which I hope will culminate in an international seminar on 'The Israeli/Palestinian conflict: possibilities and limits of Brazil’s intervention'; 4) Take part in scholarly activities in the field of international relation at the University of São Paulo, and especially at the Institute of International Relations. These will include seminar presentations and collaboration with the Institute and, more specifically, with its International Situation Analysis Group. |
News
EventsJorge Luiz Campos, Sérgio Adorno, Guilherme Ary Plonski and Bernardo Sorj via Skype IEA debates the street protests across Brazil - June 21 2013
Video Sesame - A Visit to a Parallel Reality - August 22 2013 Sesame is a center for research and advanced technology around a third-generation synchrotron light source under construction in Allan, Jordan, supported by a partnership between UNESCO and the Palestinian Authority, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Israel , Jordan, Pakistan and Turkey, which have full control over their development, use and funding. ___________________ Personal website
|